IT WAS BARELY TWO YEARS AGO, January 2024, that the 11-4 Dolphins hosted a Sunday night winner-take-all game against the Bills for the AFC East title. The Dolphins held a 14-7 lead in the 4th quarter, when their special teams allowed a 96-yard punt return TD to tie the game, and after a Dolphins 3-and-out, the Bills scored a TD on the next drive to take the lead. After another Dolphins 3-and-out followed by an INT, the Bills won the game 21-14 and took the division. The Dolphins had to settle for a wild card spot and traveled to a frozen Kansas City for a 26-7 loss in which they looked lost and non-competitive.
It’s wild to think that was the beginning of the end for a Dolphins core that was so close to a division title. After going 8-9 and 7-10 the past two seasons, that team has now been completely dismantled. GM Chris Grier is gone. HC Mike McDaniel is now the OC for the Chargers. Tua is fighting for a starting job on the Falcons. WR Jaylen Waddle was traded to the Broncos, and an injured WR Tyreek Hill was released. In fact, seven of the eight players eating up the most salary cap for the Dolphins won’t be suiting up for the Dolphins in 2026 (more on that shortly).
So the Dolphins raided the Green Bay Packers franchise for their rebuild: front office guy Jon-Eric Sullivan was hired as the new GM, former Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley was hired as the new head coach, and Packers backup QB Malik Willis was signed to be the new starting QB. They’ve got quite a task ahead of them, as their battered roster has to face one of the toughest schedules in the NFL in 2026.
To start, here’s a look at the Dolphins 2026 schedule:
@ Las Vegas Raiders / Sep 13
@ San Francisco 49ers / Sep 20
Kansas City Chiefs / Sep 27
@ Minnesota Vikings / Oct 4
Cincinnati Bengals / Oct 11
bye week / Oct 18
@ New York Jets / Oct 25
New England Patriots / Nov 1
Detroit Lions / Nov 8
@ Indianapolis Colts / Nov 15
@ Buffalo Bills / Nov 22
New York Jets / Nov 29
@ Denver Broncos / Dec 6
Chicago Bears / Dec 13
@ Green Bay Packers / Dec 20
Los Angeles Chargers / Dec 27
Buffalo Bills / Jan 3
New England Patriots / Jan 10*
That schedule is BRUTAL.
The only three “bad” teams on this are the Raiders and two games against the Jets. Every other game is against a team that has eyes on double-digit wins and a playoff birth. Heck, half their schedule is against teams that think they’re legitimate Super Bowl contenders. In terms of 2025 win %, the Dolphins 2026 schedule is the second-toughest in the NFL.
So even a strong playoff contender would have their hands full with the Dolphins 2026 schedule. Which the Dolphins are most certainly not, due to a roster that was purged in the offseason and left little room to maneuver under the salary cap. Here are the Dolphins’ eight top salary cap hits for 2026::
QB Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons) – $55.5 million
WR Tyreek Hill (released) – $28.2 million
WR Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) – $23.2 million
DB Jalen Ramsey (Steelers) – $20.8 million
DB Minkah Fitzpatrick (Jets) – $13 million
Zach Sieler (Dolphins) – @11.4 million
LB Bradley Chubb (Bills) – $10.9 million
OT Terron Armstead (retired) – $10.7 million
Here’s the math: $162 million of the Dolphins $300 million 2026 salary cap is being spent on players who won’t even play for the Dolphins this year. Leaving the Dolphins with less than half of the actual salary cap to play with.
So the Dolphins’ offseason plan was to attempt to upgrade a perennially bad offensive line and pin their hopes on Malik Willis managing an offense that will undoubtedly lean on speedster RB De’Von Achane. The defense will rely on a lot of youngsters and hope that some of them turn into standout players. And probably a lot of praying.
This means one of the biggest games of the Dolphins 2026 season happens immediately in week 1, in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who had the NFL’ s worst record in 2025. If the Dolphins take care of business and show that they’re at least a well-prepared, competent team and put together a 27-10 win, maybe the season won’t be as painful as we think. Maybe the Dolphins won’t be the pushover that many expect them to be, and surprise us with a few wins that no one expects.
But I look back to week 1 of the 2025 season, when the Dolphins put up a no-show effort against the Colts, where Indy scored on every single possession and the Dolphins trailed 30-0 in the 4th quarter before finally scoring their first points of the year. If the Dolphins lay a similar egg against the lowly Raiders in week 1, then it’s hard to see where they’re going to scrounge up wins in 2026. Momentum is a real thing in the short NFL season, and if the Dolphins fall flat against the Raiders, they might be looking at a 2- or 3- win season where they’re the leading candidate for the first pick in the 2027 NFL draft.
I know it sounds like I’m a doomer, but I’m really not. I go into every season with hope, because every year there are always a few NFL teams that surprise you by being better than you thought they’d be. New stars emerge, new teams announce themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. And every year, I hope the Dolphins will be one of those teams.
It’s been 25 years since the Dolphins last won a playoff game, the longest current drought in the NFL. I’ve been waiting a long time, and I suspect I’ll still be waiting after this season.
Prove me wrong, Dolphins. Please!
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